Decision Science

“Decision science” combines concepts, tools, and techniques from fields like psychology, economics, data science, mathematics, statistics, operations research, and computer science to guide how we make decisions.

Now, what does this mean?

A former poker player and expert on decision science gives us advice on making our decisions and setting our goals, “You’re probably scribbling out a bunch of 'can’t-fail' goals and lists of pros and cons about whether to take a leap to a new job or quit and start that business you’ve always considered.”

Decision-making expert Annie Duke says, “Don’t do that!” She says goals need a way out or an “unless,” and that a pros and cons list won’t do. It’s just a “bias amplifier.”

A “bias amplifier” allows us to “game which option looks best when making our list and weighing different factors similarly, even when they’re not.”

It’s like a toxic boss. Should getting away from a toxic boss carry a lot more weight than whether your current job gives you access to “work from home?”

“Once we start to think about something, we’ve usually already made a decision” says Duke. So, if you want to do it, you’ll have lots of pros, and if you don’t want to do it, you’ll have lots of cons.”

Duke, author of the book, The Power of Knowing When to Walk Away, is a former professional poker player.

The Problem with Pros and Con Lists

Duke says, “The other problem is that pros and cons lists don’t express magnitude. That is...how bad is the thing, or how good is the thing?”

She says we should ask ourselves:

• “What are the things I really value?"
• "How much do I value my time?"
• "How much do I value money?"
• "How much do I value fulfillment at work?”

Then make our forecast. We should ask ourselves, “Which thing is going to cause me to achieve the things I value at a cost that I’m willing to bear?”

Rather than a pros and cons list, Duke suggests we make our forecast by imagining how we think we’ll feel a year from now.

When making decisions about change, people are typically biased against the switch, says Duke, due to the concept of “loss aversion.”

“Loss aversion” refers to the tendency for people to prefer avoiding losses over acquiring equivalent gains.

In other words, the pain of losing something is often felt more intensely than the pleasure of gaining something of the same value. Interesting. Right?

“We’re very tolerant of those losses from the status quo, so we have to recognize that, and we have to step back and think about that as a new decision,” Duke says. “One of the best ways to do that is to project forward.”

This means thinking ahead to where you want to be and what steps are necessary to get there.

For example, projecting forward your career path to determine the necessary skills or education to help get there.

Duke also had recommendations for people setting goals. When you set goals, make sure you include the word “unless.”

For example, “I will finish this marathon unless I get injured.” “I will get that promotion unless my boss expects me to do things that aren’t ethical.”

Decision-making is not necessarily what you decide, but how you decide. And simply that you do decide!